PREMIA’s current live forecasts

PREMIA is currently generating live forecasts for geopolitical events. The current predictions have been made by more than 100 participants that participate in the market since January 11, 2023. The graphs show daily updates of the predictions over time. The vertical axis indicates the probability that a certain scenario will occur. The horizontal axis describes the time dimension, with each data point showing the average price during one day.

PREMIA is currently generating live forecasts for UZH’s CO2 emissions from air travel in general and of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences in particular. Since November 12, predictions have been made by more than 30 employees of the University of Zurich. The graphs shows point estimates with 80% confidence intervals over time. Point estimates and confidence intervals are derived from interpolating the probability forecasts for different ranges of CO2 emissions that are traded on the market. The graph shows daily updates of the forecasts.

We will soon be generating live forecasts of the 2023 Swiss elections. We will show two types of forecasts: 1) The forecasts for the lower chamber (Nationalrat) will show point estimates with 80% confidence intervals over time. Point estimates and confidence invervals are derived from interpollating the probability forecasts for different ranges of vote shares by parties that are traded on the market. 2) The forecasts for the upper chamber (Ständerat) will show probabilities of different (combinations) of candidates being elected in the Cantons. All graph shows daily updates of the forecasts.