Interested in getting your own prediction market forecasts?
Prediction markets can be applied to almost any significant event that takes place in the short to medium term.
For instance, in its first 2022 edition, The Economist covered 29 forecasts from prediction markets for the upcoming year. These included forecasts on the likelihood of events as diverse as Russia invading Ukraine (43%), Lula reclaiming the presidency of Brazil (68%), at least 6.5 billion covid-19 jabs administered (63%), Global air travel to top pre-pandemic levels by June (10%), and “West Side Story” to win the best picture award (24%). This short list gives an idea about the long and varied list of fields to which prediction markets are applied.
The prediction market used by PREMIA has previously been successfully applied to forecast outcomes of direct democratic votes in Switzerland, dozens of elections and other political events in Europe and the Americas, and even to migration flows in Western Europe. Currently, we apply the prediction market to CO2-emissions of air travel at the University of Zurich, geopolitical scenarios, and forecasting of direct democratic votes and elections in Switzerland.
